February 4, 2023

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Trade ideas thread – European session 14 June 2021

2 min read

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

It is Fed week. That means it is the only game in town and until we get there, it is going to be tough to really read into any moves in the market.

That said, does this week’s FOMC meeting really change anything about the current outlook? I doubt so. The Fed is likely to stay on the sidelines and reiterate patience while retaining the perspective that inflation this year still remains transitory.

And I don’t think the market really expects anything different.

A hawkish surprise is unlikely and a confirmation of the recent dovish stance is very much expected but still, that could translate to some added dollar softness especially if the bond market action last week is anything to go by.

10-year yields are keeping below 1.50% for now but in the bigger picture of things (looking out to next year and beyond), there is no other way but up.

Elsewhere, oil continues to look perky as it climbs above $71 now while Bitcoin is finding a new lease of life in a push back towards $39,000 levels today after Musk’s tweets.

I still hold a bullish view on the former while the latter is still a bit in a tough spot if it can’t break back above $40,000 especially.

What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.

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