June 28, 2022

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US dollar moves back to the downside after sharp rise is retraced/erased

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Volatile market conditions after CPI data.

The dollar has moved back to the downside and in most cases has erased the rises in the dollar vs the major pairs.  Volatile market conditions continue as the markets digest the higher CPI data today. It

EURUSD: Moved back above it’s broken 38.2% at 1.2104 and did not stop the squeeze back to the upside until getting above the London session high at 1.2143.The high just reached 1.21516. The move has the price back above the 100 hour MA at 1.21258.  A move back below that level will now be eyed for bias clues. Resistance at the 1.2150 area.  Trading more above that level could lead to more covering flows.

Volatile market conditions after CPI data._

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD move to a low of 1.40792, and has just moved above it’s high for the day at 1.41489. The high price reached 1.41525. On the topside, the high from Monday reached 1.41578. The high from yesterday reached 1.41659.  On the downside, the 1.4102-1.4106  area is a support level once again. That represents the swing low from yesterday’s trade. The Asian session low today stalled just ahead of that level at 1.41064.

GBPUSD

USDJPY: The USDJPY moved above key resistance at the 200 hour moving average and trendline  on the hourly chart at 109.05, but fell short of the swing high from Friday’s trade at 109.283 .  The price has since moved back below those technical levels at the 109.05 area.  The 100 hour moving average is below at 108.844. A move back below that level would tilt the technical bias back to the downside.  The low price on the move back lower has reached 108.889 – just above the 100 hour MA level.  Conversely a move back above the 200 hour moving average and trendline at 109.05 would tilt the bias more to the upside.

USDJPY
USDCHF: The USDCHF moved up to test key resistance defined by the near convergence of the 200 and 100 day MAs at 0.9082 and 0.9079 levels.  The high price reached 0.90782, before moving back lower.  PS that level was also near a floor area going back to April 29 and April 30 on the 4-hour chart below.
USDCHF
Volatile market conditions will be the order of the day. Liquidity and uncertainty, along with an eye on the US stocks/yields will likely continue to play a role.

The US yields have seen a move back to the upside with the 10 year now up 5.2 basis points. The 5 year is also on the rise and is up 6.4 basis points now at 0.866%.  Stocks are set to open sharply lower with the NASDAQ index leading the way. The NASDAQ futures are implying a decline of -212 points just before the open.




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