November 30, 2022

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US inflation data due June 10

1 min read

US CPI data is coming up on Thursday, and you don’t have to look far to find forecasts +4%for the headline and core +3%.

  • Median consensus at this stage are for 4.7% and 3.4% respectively
  • data due at 1230GMT 

THE question, of course, is if this surge is ‘transitory’ or note.

Goldman Sachs expects the rates to have dropped by year end:

  • Our economists recently raised their near-term inflation forecasts while maintaining their expectation that inflation will begin to abate later in the year. 
  • In April, both core PCE (+3.1% y/y) and core CPI (+3.0% y/y) exceeded expectations and notched highs not seen in more than two decades. 
  • Our economists that core PCE will register 2.5% at the end of 2021 and decline to 2.1% during 2022. 

JPM are not so sure …

  • Inflation expectations have also increased beyond what may be achievable in the near term.
  • Inflation is on the upswing in our view and will eventually surpass the Fed’s targets on a sustainable basis
  • However, expectations have increased too and now price this rise in many asset markets
US CPI data is coming up on Thursday, and you don't have to look far to find forecasts +4%for the headline and core +3%.

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