February 1, 2023

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US inflation data – it ain’t over yet, more to come on Thursday (Goldman Sachs preview)

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‘Wholesale’ level inflation data is on the docket in the US on 13 May 2021¬†


  • expected is 0.3% m/m (prior 1.0%)
  • excluding food and energy expected is 0.4% (prior 0.7%)

Goldman Sachs:

  • Tomorrow’s PPI report will clarify implications for April core PCE
  • our preliminary estimate is 0.47% month-over-month and 2.75% year-over-year

Used cars pumped up the CPI. Markets will need to find something else to freak out about in the PPI.

ps. From GS on the CPI report released Wednesday US time (this in summary):
  • Used car prices contributed 0.35pp to the core reading and are now at elevated levels
  • We believe much or most of the April CPI surprise reflected a pull-forward of reopening effects (that we had previously expected to occur this summer)
  • And underlying inflation measures were somewhat soft, with rent of shelter 0.2% and medical services prices unchanged
us ppi

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