February 4, 2023

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USDCAD consolidate near lows after break lower yesterday

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Price broke outside of consolidation range yesterday and ran lower

The USDCAD finally broke and ran to the downside. The pair had mostly traded between 1.2469 and 1.2634 going back to March 18.  Yesterday, the price broke, and retested the lower extreme between 1.2469 and 1.24747. The sellers leaned in the price trended lower.  

Price broke outside of consolidation range yesterday and ran lower

The low price extended to 1.23836 and has been consolidating between that low and 1.2418 since that time in up and down trading. 

On more downside, the low for the day at 1.2388 and the low from yesterday at 1.23836 would be the the closest target. Below that 1.2377 and 1.23646 (low from March 18) would be targeted.

Drilling to the five minute chart below, the pair has been able to stay below the 50% retracement of the last trend the leg lower at 1.24188.  

The price HAS traded above and below its 100 and 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart (see blue and green lines), but that is consistent with a consolidation period.  

Staying below the 50% of the last leg (not the full leg lower but just the last), keeps the sellers more control and shows their willingness to accept the break and run from yesterday.  Putting it another way, if the buyers are to take back more control, getting above the 50% would be the minimum they would need to do to take back some control.  Failure to do that, and the sellers are still in full control. 

USDCAD on the five minute chart 

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