November 26, 2022

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USDCAD tests 200 hour MA. Price dips below but remains above the 50% midpoint

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200 hour MA at 1.22737

The  USDCAD has been trading above and below its 200 hour moving average 1.22737 over the last three hourly bars. The low price reached 1.22645. The current price is at 1.2276.  

200 hour MA at 1.22737

The dip below the 200 hour moving average is more bearish and should have solicited more selling, but there was a swing low at 1.22616 on June 17 in the way, and the 50% midpoint of the months trading range (for June) at 1.22477.  So there is some cause for pause at other support targets (including that midpoint level) (blue line.  

Yesterday the price fell below its 100 hour moving average for the first time since June 11 and selling intensified. The price initially stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the June trading range at 1.2304 area.  In the Asian session today, the corrective move could not gather much upside momentum, and the prices started its run back to the downside.

Now with the 200 hour moving average in the way, there is some reluctance. 

Canada retail sales came in worse than expected today, but the prior month were revised higher.  A slight negative for the loonie (higher USDCAD). 

Oil prices are continuing to surgewith the WTI crude now up $1.09 or 1.48% $73.93. That should be supportive of the CAD (all things equal – lower USDCAD).

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