Setting up traders for the week
The USDCAD is trading in a narrow 35 PIP trading range today (the average is around 70 pips). It is all holiday in Canada, so the price action is not all that of a surprise. However even in non-trending days, it can set up the levels to eye going forward.
Looking at the hourly chart, the 1.2043 to 1.20544 area is home to a number of swing lows and highs going back to May 12 (with most last week and today – see red numbered circles). The area is ahead of the swing low extremes seen on May 18 and again on Friday. Those runs lower could not keep momentum going, and the price rebounded.
Going forward, breaking below the swing area would put the price in the “extreme area” with lows at 1.20269 on Friday and 1.20122 on May 18 as the next downside targets. Move below each and the door opens for further downside momentum.
On the topside, there was a breach of the 100 hour moving average in the London session today (blue line), but that was reversed near the 38.2% retracement at 1.20850 (the 100 hour moving averages at 1.20768).
Going forward on more upside momentum, getting above the 100 hour moving average, the 38.2% retracement, and then the 200 hour moving average (green line) at 1.20933 would be the steps for a more bullish technical bias.
Last week, the price did try to extend above the 200 hour moving average on Wednesday and again on Thursday, with the biggest try on Thursday.
However, momentum stalled, and when the price moved back below the 200 hour moving average in the North American session on Thursday, buyers turned back sellers. The price as not closely tested that moving average since that time.
The trading range may be narrow, but that does not stop traders from setting up the next trade. Getting above the 100 hour moving average is step one if the buyers are to take control.
Holding below that MA and moving below the 1.2054 and 1.2043 level would increase the bearish bias.