December 9, 2022

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USDCAD trades to a new cycle low but is bouncing

2 min read

Trades to lowest level since beginning of 2018.

The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since the week of January 28, 2018 today.  The low took out the swing low from yesterday at 1.23084. The low price today reach 1.22797 but is belting higher and currently trades at 1.2305, just below the low from yesterday.  The pair closed at 1.2312.  Looking at the weekly chart, on further selling the 1.22445 level was the swing low from 2018. The swing low from 2017 reached down to 1.20612.

Trades to lowest level since beginning of 2018._
Drilling all the way down to the 5 minute chart below, recall from yesterday the price consolidated after sharp moves lower on Monday. The price traded above and below its 100/200 bar moving averages, but remained below its 50% retracement of the last leg lower on Monday. That kept the sellers more control (see higher yellow area).

Yesterday, when the price started to break lower and corrected up to test the 100 bar moving average (blue line), sellers leaned. That gave traders the signal to push lower and indeed they did with another sharp trend moved lower.

Today’s price action is more of a up and down consolidation again. The pair is now trading to new highs for the London session. The 38.2% retracement of the last trend like move  to the downside comes in at 1.23329. That would be an upside target that would need to be broken if the buyers are to take more control. That is the minimum. The 50% at 1.23490 would be another target.

The good news for the dip buyers is that the price is back above its 100 and 200 bar moving averages at 1.2299 to 1.2302 respectively. If the dip buyers are to keep control, staying above those moving averages will be eyed. A move back below would not be welcome. 

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