February 3, 2023

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USDCHF ping-pongs between moving average levels

2 min read

Traders it waiting the next shove with momentum (hopefully).

The USDCHF today has been ping-pong been mostly between its 100 hour moving average below at 0.90523 and 200 day moving average above at 0.9073. There has been some small peeks above and below the levels, but not by much.   The current price trade at 0.9066.

Traders it waiting the next shove with momentum (hopefully).

With buyers and sellers battling it out, it suggest that they are still looking for the catalyst for a shove either higher or lower.  

A move above the 200 day moving average, would have traders targeting the 200 hour moving average at 0.90868 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 20 high at 0.90995 (call it 0.9100).

On a move below the 100 hour moving average at 0.90523, traders will look toward the double bottom from July 30 and August 2 at 0.9038 area.  Below that, the low from August 3 at 0.90226 and August 4 at 0.90178 would be targeted. 

For the week, the trading ranges only about 60 pips from the low to high (see red box in the chart above).  The low came in at 0.90178. The high was at 0.90774.  

Looking at trading calendar weeks, there was a week in 2019 when the range was 63 pips. 

If the price were to stay in the current range through tomorrow’s trading, it would represent the lowest trading range going back years (if not a record).  That dynamic argues for a break at some point (unless you think we are ready to make a record this week which is not the odds on favorite choice).  I know the US jobs report can be a catalyst for an extension, but it may break today too.   

The point is be aware. There is room to roam.   

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