New low today going back to March 1
The USDCHF made a new low going back to March 1 in the Asian session. In dong so, the price moved below the lows from last Monday and Friday near 0.9128. The new low reached 0.9121 but could not go any farther. The London session saw the price extend to and through the 100 hour MA at 0.91577 to a high at 0.91652.
However, the early NY session has seen a rotation back to the downside and below the MA level. The pair has had trouble keeping buying momentum going above the 100 hour MA over the last few weeks. There have been a number of breaches of the MA, but each one has fallen short of the 200 hour MA target. Last Thursday, that MA and a topside downward sloping trend line was tested but could not be broken. Today’s attempt has fallen well short of the trend line (at 0.91735) and the 200 hour MA (at 0.91722).
If the buyers are to take more control, not only do they need to get and stay above the 100 hour MA, but also extend above the falling trend line and 200 hour MA. PS the USDCHF price has not traded above the 200 hour MA since April 5th.
SUMMARY: The price action and failed breaks are frustrating for the USDCHF. There have been no fewer than 7 breaks of the 100 hour MA above with each falling short of a downward sloping trend line and the 200 hour MA. Ultimately, the 3 levels will need to be broken and stay broken IF the buyers are to take more control.
For now, with the price back below the 100 hour MA, the sellers have the edges despite the gains today. However, they too need to show they can keep downside momentum going.
So be flexible. The price action is saying that to us.