March 26, 2023

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USDJPY extends higher and above the 38.2% today. Can it stay above?

2 min read

38.2% at 108.804.

Yesterday, the price of the USDJPY trended to the upside after breaking and staying above its 200 hour moving average (green line) for the first time since April 5.  The pair moved up toward its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high at 108.804 and called it a day.

38.2% at 108.804.

Today, the price initially based against a swing area between 108.54 and 108.619 and pushed higher.  The aforementioned 38.2% retracement was broken at 108.804 and has been able to stay above that level in up and down trading through the London/European session.  

Getting above the 38.2% retracement is a step in the bullish direction.  The question is can it stay above that level?  

For traders looking for more upside, holding that level should be a short-term risk defining level.  Stay above is more bullish. Move below and the break fails (at least for now).  

On the topside, the swing high from April 14 comes in at 109.089. The I price today stalled just ahead of that level. Get above that in the 50% retracement at 109.215 will be another upside target to get to and through if the buyers are to continue their corrective run to the upside.

The price trended down for most of the month of April, but the last few days have seen a run back higher which has tilted the shorter-term bias more to the upside. Will that continue or will the correction fizzle out and the market moved back down?  For me the 38.2% retracement will be the next defining level that will help answer the question.

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