Looks toward 200 hour MA now
The USDJPY fell below its 100 hour moving average at 110.687. That moving average was tested in the London morning session only to find support buyers on the first look. However as New York traders entered and the PCE data did not surprise to the upside (at least), the price has moved down to a new session low at 110.493. In the process the price is also move below a swing area between 110.525 and 110.579. The close risk is 110.579 now with the 100 hour moving average also a risk barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below each keeps the intraday bias more to the downside.
The next target comes in at the 200 hour moving average at 110.447. The 50% retracement of the weeks trading range – which saw the price move up on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, before falling yesterday and again today – comes in at 110.410.
Getting below those levels should open up the door for more downside. On Monday the price move below the 200 hour moving average and stayed below for about 4 hourly bars, before rebounding above – and staying above – for the rest of the trading week. Traders would want to see the moving average broken and remain broken to keep the bearish bias.
Holding support against the 200 hour moving average/50% retracement, would lead to a more neutral bias for the pair with the buyers and sellers battling it out between the moving average levels (with an eye on 110.579 in between).