November 26, 2022

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WTI climbs back above $70 per barrel as cryptic US message on Iran eyed

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Nuclear deal negotiations continue Wednesday

Nuclear deal negotiations continue Wednesday

The US released a curious statement today and asked Iran to “refrain from taking further steps” that violate the nuclear deal.

That’s a hint that talks might not be heading to a conclusion. These have been billed as the ‘final’ talks but they said the same thing last week and Iran’s June 18 election is likely an impediment.

“We further urge Iran to join the US in reaching and implementing and understanding for a mutual return to full compliance with the JCPOA,” the statement reads.

Hangups around a deal appear to be on sequencing (sanctions relief first or nuclear reductions first), sanctions details, rules that would prevent the US from leaving again, and whether to mothball or destroy advanced centrifuges.

The price of oil right now tells you all you need to know about how confidence the market is in a deal. Since the US statement, oil prices have marched higher and WTI last traded up 85-cents to $70.07.

On top of the US comments, the EU also expressed “deepening concern” at Iran’s actions.

I believe and Iran deal is 90% priced in so there would be much more upside in oil than downside if it all fell apart.

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